The 14th Five Year Plan for renewable energy development in China is under intense preparation, which will determine the development trend of renewable energy in the next five years. In view of the energy transformation being vigorously promoted in the country, photovoltaic and wind power will be the main means to increase the proportion of non fossil energy during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Photovoltaic is the type of power generation with the fastest cost reduction in recent 10 years
From 2009 to 2019, the per kilowatt hour cost of photovoltaic decreased by 89%. In 2019, the average cost of photovoltaic power is 40 cents/kwh, which is one of the lowest among all kinds of power sources. In 2019, the electricity price of photovoltaic bidding projects in Portugal and the United Arab Emirates has been lower than 2 cents/kwh, which is lower than 3.7 cents/kwh in Xinjiang, the province with the lowest benchmark coal price in China.
In 2019, the average cost of ground power plant is 4.55 yuan/watt, which is expected to drop to 3.8 yuan/watt or even lower in 2020. In the future, the cost of photovoltaic will continue to decline at an average annual rate of 5-10%, and will further drop to 2.62 yuan/watt by 2025. Photovoltaic will become the cheapest energy in the world.
Global photovoltaic enters the era of parity, with rapidly increased demand
Global photovoltaic power generation still covers little proportion, which is estimated to be less than 5%. Driven by the affordable access to the grid, it is estimated that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will grow by nearly 13 times in the next 30 years, with an accumulated installed capacity of 8,440 GW, and the annual compound growth rate will be about 9%.
China’s non fossil energy development goals include 15% of proportion in 2020, no less than 20% in 2030 and no less than 50% in 2050. It is reported that major adjustments may be made in the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the proportion of renewable energy will be greatly increased.
After the combination of low-cost photovoltaic and energy storage, it will bring long-term and sustainable development power to the industry. It is estimated that the global photovoltaic capacity will increase by 368 GW in 2025.
In the era of parity, with no worry in the demand
In 2020, the scale of parity projects will reach 33GW (the domestic installed capacity is expected to be 40-50GW in this year), with a year-on-year increase of 124%, including 10.89 GW in Guangdong Province, south China.
The main factors to suppress PV valuation are the effect of subsidy policy on installed capacity, and the impact of new technology iteration on the industry pattern. In the trend of parity, the marginal impact of policy subsidies has been largely reduced, and the cost reduction caused by technology iteration has become the core driving force to promote the development of the industry. The uncertainty of industry policy disturbance and technology iteration is gradually eliminated, and the industry pattern will be more clear and stable in the future.