Behind the installation blowout in the fourth quarter of 2020

China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) announced on January 20 that in 2020, the newly installed power capacity of the country was 190.87 million kilowatts, including 13.23 million kilowatts of hydropower, 71.67 million kilowatts of wind power and 48.2 million kilowatts of solar power.

It should be noted that in the first three quarters of 2020, the newly added installed capacity of photovoltaic was 18.7GW, which means that the installed capacity of photovoltaic in the fourth quarter reached 29.5GW, far more than the total of the first three quarters, showing a turbulent installation rush.

Ren Yuzhi, deputy director of the New Energy Department of the NEA, previously said that China’s photovoltaic industry has made comprehensive progress in major production links, with polysilicon production accounting for 67.3% of the world’s total; silicon wafers, batteries and modules accounting for 70% of the world’s total; and by the end of 2020, photovoltaic power generation surpassed wind power in scale and become China’s third largest power source.

According to statistics, in 2020, a total of 13 photovoltaic enterprises announced 40 production expansion projects, with a total investment of more than RMB 210 billion yuan.

Affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, early in 2020, the industry was actually pessimistic about the installed capacity. However, after the economy returned, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic continued to expand.

The installation rush in the fourth quarter also directly led to the soaring price and shortage of photovoltaic glass.

In the second half of the year, the market price of photovoltaic glass soared all the way. The average price of 3.2mm coated products increased from 23 yuan/m2 in last June to 37 yuan/m2 in October, and reached 43 yuan/m2 in December.

At the critical moment of glass shortage and increasing demand, many enterprises voiced their concern that the serious shortage of glass production capacity made the production scheduling and shipment of module enterprises face a serious crisis, and urged relevant state departments to consider guiding the orderly progress of the project.

China has made it clear that carbon dioxide emissions will reach the peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The green and low-carbon development and clean energy transformation have been emphasized in the 14th Five Year Plan recently issued by all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and the relevant proposals for the long-term goals in 2035. Among the provinces that have announced specific installation plans, Guangdong, Ningxia, Tibet and other places have significantly increased their photovoltaic installation targets during the 14th Five Year Plan period compared with the previous one.

With the surging growth of downstream demand, photovoltaic enterprises also began to increase production.

Longji, for instance, announced on January 18 that it would invest RMB 8 billion yuan to increase the capacity of monocrystalline battery, and invest in the construction of an annual output of 15GW monocrystalline battery project in Jinghe New Town, Xixian New District, northwest China’s Shaanxi Province.

This is just a cross-section of the trend of photovoltaic enterprises’ production expansion since 2020. According to statistics, in 2020, a total of 13 photovoltaic enterprises announced 40 production expansion projects, with a total investment of more than RMB 210 billion yuan.

Some believed that under the background of full parity grid connection and gradual weakening of subsidies, the development of enterprises will be more in line with market competition, and the industry pattern will accelerate change. Enterprises with advantages in technology, scale and capital are bound to take the initiative to expand production, seize the market and seize development opportunities.